RWC 2023: Teams odds to win France Rugby World Cup 2023
With the 2023 Six Nations done and dusted, Nick Bentley takes a look at the facts to see how the six teams France rugby, Ireland rugby, Scotland rugby, Wales rugby, England rugby and Italy rugby have achieved and how they are shaping up for this autumn's Rugby World Cup in France.
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Ireland Rugby World Cup team
The 2023 Six Nations was slanting as a battle between the top two classified teams in the world, Ireland vs France, and that's how it played out. Eventually, Ireland had too much for all their rivals and won a third Six Nations Grand Slam and fifth competition overall. In feature Andy Farrell style, Ireland kept a fixed grip on their games by playing tight. A competition high 55% of their play persisted within 10 metres of the previous breakdown.
That said they also had perhaps the strongest back three in the Championship, meaning when they did move the ball to those edges, more often than not they counted. Hugo Keenan and James Lowe topped the metres gained rankings while Lowe also contributed 10 line breaks, the most of any player. In fact, as a unit, Ireland's tally of 39 breaks was the most of any team.
Ireland was also extremely disciplined, conceding a race low 44 penalties and finishing the contest as the only side not to receive a card. A stingy defence in the red zone was also vital, granting just 1.2 points per entry to the 22, the best rate of any side. Can anyone beat Ireland at Rugby World Cup 2023? They've lost just two of their past 24 games and are on a 10-game winning streak.
Plus, a pair of wins over New Zealand, victories over South Africa and Australia and a Grand Slam. Their RWC history is perhaps the most disappointing of any leading rugby nation, having never advanced past the quarter-finals. But this Ireland side fears no one and has the ability, leadership and strategy to go all the way.
France Rugby World Cup side
France's rugby team headed into this Six Nations on a record 13-game undefeated run, however, they could only spread that to 14 games before they were undone by an excellent Ireland side. They leapt back with showy wins against Scotland, England and Wales rugby teams. As a team, they dodged nearly a third 29% of the attacks they faced, with Damian Penaud, Antoine Dupont and Ethan Dumortier all in the top five of this group separately.
Penaud had an amazing tackle evasion rate of 81%, dodging 25 would-be defenders and only being tackled six times. Fabien Galthie's men were also clinical when they made a disruption, converting 50% of their line breaks into tries, the finest rate of any side. This aggressive efficiency is reflected in the fact they averaged three points per opposition 22 entries, again the best rate of any RWC team.
A competition-high success rate of 55% rounds off the CV, so despite having the least possession (45%), they took the prize for best attack. As Rugby World Cup 2023 hosts, the burden will be firmly on France come September, specifically as they kick the competition off against three-time champions New Zealand. But this team are remarkably talented and has the unity to go deep. Rugby fans can book Rugby World Cup Tickets on our website at exclusively discounted prices.
Scotland Rugby World Cup team
A concrete defence is an energetic foundation for any side and Scotland's tackle success rate of 92% was the best of any side; Jack Dempsey (55/55) and Jonny Gray (51/51) made more tackles than anyone else in the competition not to miss a single hit. On the flip side, Scotland chose to play with width in attack, going extensive more often than any other rugby side. This courage was rewarded with the second-best red zone alteration rate in the competition, averaging 2.8 points per opposition 22 entries.
Separately, Finn Russell is their brilliant player. However, his game is a high-risk, high reward. High for wasted tackles and turnovers conceded 12 but also sitting joint top for try assists 4, and highest among fly-halves for metres gained 218 and defenders beaten 11. Duhan van der Merwe is faintly more reliable in his threat. In this Six Nations, he was one of two Scotland players to play each minute.
Scotland head into the France Rugby World Cup with big desires, however, a hard group awaits. Defending champions South Africa are first up before a giant game against Ireland. They'll be underdogs to drip the pool but both South Africa and Ireland will be nervous about playing a revivified Scotland rugby side. As with everything Russell is scrambled in, expect the unexpected.
England Rugby World Cup team
Steve Borthwick tolerated an exciting first Six Nations as head coach. His side broke the defensive line the most often of any outfit 16 times and join the lowest tackle success rate of 83% and worst goal-kicking of 62% you can appreciate how they failed to pick up more than a couple of triumphs. Having the slowest average ruck speed of 3.8 seconds of any side didn't help their attack find the gaps, nor did the four exclusive midfield arrangements.
One area of success they did have was in the set-piece and attack. England achieved the best line-out success rate of 92% of any team, made the best maul metres of any side and counted as many try from mauls as the other nations joined. They finished the set-piece strength by dealing the best scrum success rate in the Championship at 96%.
England starts their RWC with tough games against Argentina and Japan rugby sides, both of whom are aware of picking up big scalps in the competition. Can Borthwick build unity and confidence in the short time before that opening game? There will be no perks to build into the contest and their hopes could be all over before they play Chile and Samoa teams if they don't hit the ground running.
Wales RWC team
Warren Gatland's arrival delivered some pre-tournament buzz but in the end, a somewhat accidental victory against a wasteful Italy released them the Wooden Spoon. Their lack of attacking risk and leaky defence are big doubts. Their mark of 147 points passed was their peak since 2002 while they also had the lowest achievement rates at the line-out of 85%, scrum of 81% and breakdown of 95%.
They were also the only Rugby World Cup team not to notch a try from a counter-attack and they sat bottom of the tables for defenders beaten and metres gained. One optimism to draw upon is that they were getting in the positions to mark points, behind only Ireland and France for opposition 22 entries per game. The worry is they only recorded 1.6 points per entry, the humblest return for any side.
Wales has a lot of work to do if they want to go deep at the RWC 2023. A fairly sympathetic pool - thanks in large part to Wales' ranking back when the draw was made means they'll be assured of escaping to the knockout phases. There are serious banana skins against Georgia who beat them last November and Fiji who beat them in the 2007 RWC which could derail those determinations.
Italy Rugby World Cup
Although Italy picked up an eighth successive Wooden Spoon, and 18th in total, their acts were vastly enhanced. Their average outcome margin this year was 12, their best in 10 years and one big positive was their skill to hang on in the second half. Italy won the second half in two of their games and drew another vs France RWC side. Quick ruck speed was vital to Italy's drive in attack, their average of three seconds per ruck was the firmest of any side.
In Paolo Garbisi they have an actual maestro who can marshal that advance. Despite playing just 232 minutes, only Mack Hansen made more passes that led to a line-break than the Italian fly-half. Italy faces the undesirable challenge of playing New Zealand and France at the Rugby World Cup 2023. They've never beaten New Zealand and have an average losing margin of 48 points from 15 games.
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